It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

We prove a theorem justifying the regularity conditions which are needed for Path Sampling in Factor Models. We then show that the remaining ingredient, namely, MCMC for calculating the integrand at ...

Let τ be a prior distribution over the parameter space Θ for a given parametric model P θ, θ ∈ Θ. For the sample space X (over which P θ 's are probability measures) belonging to a general class of ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...